Kirill Shamiev

Imperfect Equilibrium: Civil–Military Relations in Russian Defense Policymaking

Why has Russia’s military struggled to adapt to the challenges of contemporary warfare?

This book explains the political reasons behind Russia’s poor attempts to reform its armed forces before the war in Ukraine. Drawing on extensive qualitative and quantitative evidence—including interviews, parliamentary speeches, media reports and surveys—it shows how unchecked autonomy can undermine military development, even in authoritarian contexts. It is published in Hurst Publishers (Europe) and will be published in Oxford University Press (North America) in July 2026.

Reviews

Capsule review in Foreign Affairs

Personal reviews:

A thoughtful and deeply researched account of civil–military relations in the post-Soviet period.
Mikhail Kasyanov, former prime minister of Russia

Every army reflects the society from which it is drawn; Russia is no exception. Imperfect Equilibrium explains how conservatism, competing strategic visions, and bureaucratic infighting left Putin’s army ill-prepared for his war in Ukraine and will continue to hinder military reform.
John Foreman, UK Defence Attaché in Moscow (2019–22) and Kyiv (2008–11)

A deeply insightful and illuminating account, shedding light on the important role civilian–military relations played in shaping defense reform and policymaking in Russia, from the end of the Cold War to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Michael Kofman, Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Shamiev insightfully connects complex Kremlin politics to its influence on military development. This fascinating, well-researched book is a welcome addition to the field of military analysis.
Dara Massicot, Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

This comprehensive analysis focuses on the ideas, interests and identities of key actors and their impact on the performance of the Russian armed forces. A must-read for scholars of Russia.
Vladimir Gel’man, Professor of Russian and Eurasian Politics, University of Helsinki